The gambling nature of young people and the future of A-shares.

2024-06-05

I came across a description of the hobbies of modern young people and found it quite interesting.

Lotteries, blind boxes, and claw machines.

Uncertainty is something that modern young people love.

In the process of exploring the unknown, they seek gains and happiness, even if it is a high consumption.

Compared to gambling, this kind of entertainment-oriented gambling seems to be more popular among young people.

Because of this character, there will be no shortage of "leeks" in the future A-share market.

In recent years, some young people have joined the ranks of fixed investment funds without hesitation.

If the market falls, they add more positions, treating it as savings, and if it rises, they don't sell, continuing to save.

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Dreaming of an annualized return of 15%, and then continue to work hard to earn money, longing for a future life of lying flat.

When the pressure of buying a house is no longer on the new generation of young people, stock investment is the most thing this group of people will do after completing consumption.Eating, dressing, housing, and transportation come first, hobbies and interests come second, and investment is placed third.

Although investment is not the most important, the investment awareness of young people is quickly awakening after meeting their own needs.

It is impossible for this market to have no "leeks" to take over the positions, but whether the future "leeks" will obediently follow is actually questionable.

The young people in the market, the first to try the "crab", those who have entered the funds, are already unbearable to watch.

Therefore, the successors may give up on funds and return to the arms of the stock market, and self-trading is still a major trend.

However, young people's understanding of the stock market is definitely different from that of the middle-aged and elderly.

The stocks they choose and the timing of buying and selling will definitely be different.

So, the future stock market ecology, or the ecology of retail investors, the "leek" ecology, will definitely undergo many changes.

Firstly, the preference for listed companies will change.

Perhaps, the older generation of stock investors has a special preference for listed companies such as Moutai, ICBC, Ping An, and Yili.Because these brands are significant experiences for this generation.

However, what young people like is completely different.

For the current young people, they are more enthusiastic about investing in Xiaomi, Bilibili, Pop Mart, and other products that belong to their era.

Even if the performance of these listed companies is not necessarily satisfactory.

But in their eyes, these companies have better development prospects.

In the young people's fashion circle, technology circle, cultural and creative circle, animation circle, and even the pet circle, a large number of listed companies will emerge and be sought after.

This will also confirm a saying, the times belong to the young people, and listed companies will naturally embrace the young people.

Second, there will be a shift in the preference for trading styles.

The gambling nature of young people is reflected in the need for results in the short term.

They have no patience to listen to the logic of value investment, they pay more attention to what will happen the day after buying today.It's as if young people, when buying lottery tickets, prefer scratch cards over traditional lottery draws.

Playing blind boxes and claw machines are forms of entertainment that provide immediate gratification.

They understand high risks and are more willing to pay for them, requiring quick validation.

Young people don't listen to stories about holding periods of three to five years; they need to see the future in the short term.

They crave a T+0 trading system rather than T+1, ideally knowing the results immediately.

Focusing on short-term investments is also an important style for young people, even though short-term investments are very susceptible to being "harvested" like chives.

Thirdly, the mentality towards stock trading will change.

In addition to making money, collecting is also a mentality of young people towards stock investment.

When buying stocks is like opening a blind box and not getting the desired result, they won't be as disheartened.

As long as conditions permit, just open the next blind box.If the conditions do not permit, then wait for a while, and then open the next one.

As for the blind boxes that are opened incorrectly and cannot be exchanged, they can also be collected. Those with a wealthy mentality can simply discard them.

Young people invest in stocks for the thrill and expectation of the moment of purchase, not necessarily for a result.

Therefore, from the perspective of trading mentality, young people in the future will not have too much psychological burden for stock trading failures.

Economically, they will not bear too much burden due to stock trading losses.

Because compared to buying a house and other things, losing a little money in stock trading is not a big deal at all, just consider it as entertainment.

Perhaps some people will say, who is the fool who loses money and still laughs happily in the market.

This is just like knowing that buying lottery tickets is basically donating money, but there are still people who are keen on scratching lottery tickets, which is the same reason.

When young people enter the market, what they need is not the advice given by the older generation, they have their own way of dealing with the market.After the entry of this group of young capital, A-shares will inevitably undergo many changes.

Firstly, there is an emphasis on speculation based on imaginative themes.

A-shares have always been a place that likes to tell stories. Nowadays, it's about the stories, and in the future, it's about imagination.

Young people have very rich imaginations, so as long as the story is told well enough, the speculation will also have a promising future.

The previous metaverse was a story, space colonization is also a story, and AI is actually a story as well.

However, these stories are still on the road to development, and it's really hard to say whether they will come true in the future.

Having a story background, a space for imagination, and being able to support the speculation of stock prices is the key and focus.

Therefore, the investment logic in the future should prioritize the imagination of the story.

Secondly, the fluctuation of technology-related indices will intensify.

The fluctuation range of technology-related indices will become larger.Because young people are keen on pursuing technology, the rhythm of market capital driving emotions will be faster and the amplitude will be greater.

In recent years, the fluctuations in the technology sector have begun to increase, because some capital feels that there are many speculative followers in the technology category.

Whenever there are many speculative followers, the greater the shock, the easier it is for capital to make money.

Anyway, the concept of technology does not pay much attention to valuation, so the fluctuation range will naturally be much larger.

Third, the style of being short, flat, and fast will be promoted.

The way of being short, flat, and fast is the mainstream of the stock market.

After young people enter the market, this style will be further magnified.

Those stocks with little fluctuation will not be noticed, only those at the top and bottom of the price change list will be favored by young people.

Capital actually hopes to quickly cut leeks, so the way of being short, flat, and fast will become more and more intense.

Of course, there is also a time when leeks are cut out, and it depends on how the market plays.The technical traders in the short term are always one of the most popular factions in the market.

The essence of the market's "mowing of leeks" will not change, but this is not very important for young people.

Blind boxes are also originally used for "mowing of leeks", buying something you don't know what it is, isn't that a leek?

This is just a calculation we make from an economic perspective.

Future new consumption scenarios and new investment scenarios will all focus on experience and feeling, and the stock market is no exception.

Don't say that A-shares have no future, the future of A-shares is just to repeat a series of large cycles.

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