On October 20th,amidst a chorus of despair,the index broke through the 3000-point mark,closing at 2983,once again falling below 3000 points.
On October 23rd,in a wave of panic,the index hit a new low for the phase,at 2923 points.
On October 27th,while the index was lingering at the bottom,it suddenly pulled up a medium-length bullish candle,closing at 3017,smoothly returning above the 3000-point mark.
From breaking through 3000 points to reclaiming the lost ground,it took no more than six trading days in total.
After that,the index began to rise steadily,seemingly with no intention of returning to the 3000-point mark to take a look.
So,the question arises,who took away this golden bottom below 3000 points?
This question is worth pondering because when 2923 arrived,retail investors almost uniformly expressed that they would not go to the bottom to pick up the bargains.
The vast majority of retail investors,either already fully invested and lying flat.
Or they are very pessimistic about the market,believing that 2900 will definitely be broken,and must wait to see 2800.
To the extent that some retail investors,even after the index has stabilized above 3000 points again,believe that the index will come down again for a second bottom test.It can be said that retail investors who are bullish have no ammunition to bottom-fish,and those who are bearish have not even attempted to bottom-fish at all.
The chance and proportion for retail investors to catch this bottom are extremely slim.
So,which smart funds have taken this bottom?
In fact,if you observe the market carefully,you will find that the trading volume at the bottom is not small.
Take October 27th,the day when the market reclaimed the 3000-point mark,as an example.The turnover of the two markets reached over 960 billion yuan,which is a clear sign of capital intervention compared to the previous period when the volume was only 60-70 billion yuan.
After reclaiming the 3000-point mark,the market has repeatedly seen turnover of over one trillion yuan,indicating that the funds involved in this round of bottom-fishing are not just small-scale operations,but substantial capital from major institutions.
If the incremental funds do not come from retail investors,then it must be the actions of the main force institutions,and the bottom has been taken by these funds.
In fact,there are only a few types of bottom-fishing funds,because there are only a few smart funds in the market.
The first category,those who know,understand.At the bottom of each cycle,there is always mysterious capital involved.
This time,the Central Huijin Investment Ltd.'s increase in bank stocks,as well as the CSI 300,is a standard signal.
In addition,entities such as the Social Security Fund are also the main forces in bottom-fishing.
However,the Social Security Fund does not make a big fuss to tell the market that it is bottom-fishing.
By the time we find traces of the Social Security Fund,it should already be the first quarter of 2024.
Therefore,the entry of bottom-fishing capital is often stealthy,and they will not disclose it if they can help it.
These funds can often accurately seize the opportunity at the market bottom because they know roughly what range the market will fall to.
However,their movements are relatively secretive,and the openly publicized Central Huijin will not report every day how much it has bought,but rather release a signal.
As for whether retail investors believe it or not,they do not care,because once it rises,naturally there will be people who believe it.
The second category is private equity funds.In this round of bottoming out,there are no shortage of private equity funds looking to buy at the low.
Some private equity funds have even made statements that A-shares have no investment value.
This kind of signal is a clear contrarian indicator,used to lure retail investors to cut their losses at a low point.
A large number of private equity funds are eager to seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom; they have long been ready to pounce.
However,they are also waiting for an opportunity,to pick up the bottom chips when the market is in despair.
There are no shortage of private equity funds that opened positions in September and October,and many of these have seen significant increases in net value during these two months.
Private equity funds are much more flexible than public funds,especially in terms of position management and stock selection.
In every round of bottom-fishing,there are more or less the shadows of private equity funds,which also proves that there are indeed some operators in the private sector who are particularly sensitive to the market.
The third category is index funds.
Funds invested in index funds will definitely buy at the 3000-point mark.Because below 3000 points,the valuation of many broad-based indices is definitely low.
For example,the ChiNext board's price-to-earnings ratio has reached an historically low level,and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is also at a historically lower level.
Therefore,it is clear that we have seen an increase in the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300,and the ChiNext board has also seen a rebound with an increase in trading volume.
The investment method of index funds is relatively simple,which is to buy in different positions according to the high and low valuations.
The lower the valuation,the larger the amount of money to buy.
In fact,as early as 3100 points,the valuation of the vast majority of index funds has already entered a lower range.
The way of buying index funds is similar to value investment,which is to determine the position held according to the valuation of the index.
We cannot simply measure the valuation of the sector by 3000 points,because the current valuation of 3000 points is close to the valuation of 2700 points before.
It is more reasonable to measure the overall valuation and investment risk-reward ratio of the index by the price-to-earnings ratio.
Below 3000 points,the entire index is already in a relatively low valuation area,and those funds that invest in index funds will buy in large quantities.For them,it's a matter of losing time,not money.
The fourth category is value investing.
Value investment funds,including value investors,were also a major force in this bottom-fishing at 3000 points.
As early as when the market had not yet broken through 3000 points,some value-oriented investors had already called for a significant increase in their positions if the market broke through 3000 points.
Most value-oriented investors practice what they preach,and it is highly likely that they will bottom-fish below 3000 points.
However,there are also some value-oriented investors who have already been fully invested above 3000 points,and their bottom-fishing funds are not very substantial.
Some value-oriented investors also participate in some index funds,including the purchase of some blue-chip stocks.
In the bottom area,some individual stocks such as Moutai still show a more obvious increase in volume and a digging phenomenon.
The core of the value investment school is position management,and the funds they replenish and enter below 3000 points are also relatively limited.
Value-oriented investors do not advocate for a large-scale bottom-fishing,but rather advocate for buying while falling.They will not miss the opportunity of low prices and will participate in it.Category Five,Quantitative Funds.
It has to be said that quantitative funds have been entering the market in large numbers recently,but many investors are not aware of this.
This is because the market receives news about the movements of quantitative funds relatively slowly.
Quantitative funds do not make money by catching the bottom of the market; they make money from volatility,which is an excess return.
However,the actual return of quantitative funds is the index return plus the excess return,which means that during an uptrend,the return rate of quantitative funds is also higher.
Around the 3000-point mark,because the original return rate of quantitative funds was quite good.
A large number of rational investors still chose to increase their positions in quantitative funds,pursuing dual returns.
Quantitative funds,although known as the market's "wool party," if there were no high buying and low selling by quantitative trading,the market's trading volume would shrink a lot.
Quantitative has many applications in mature markets,and in the later stages,it will evolve into a confrontation of quantitative models.This type of fund is quite ruthless and is also a killer in the market.
They are not enthusiastic about catching the bottom and escaping the top,they are not subjective,and they are a great killer for market retail investors.Whether to bottom-fish or not is actually not particularly crucial; it depends on each person's trading pattern.
However,controlling the direction of the market trend is very critical.
If you didn't buy below 3000 points,then should you not seize the opportunities above 3000 points?
How to ensure that you don't miss the investment opportunities above 3000 points is the core issue that should be considered at present.
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