Recently, there have been a lot of stocks that have hit the upper limit and then opened up.

Among them, some have continued to soar after opening up, while others have plummeted.

Is there any mystery in the opening up of the upper limit?

Of course, because the intentions behind the opening up are completely different.

If the main force lacks chips, it can open up to take the panic plate.

If the main force wants to wash the plate, it can open up to wash and change hands.

If the main force wants to sell, it can open up to deceive the take-over plate.

The essence of opening up is to change hands at a high position on the upper limit, and this situation of changing hands determines the intention of opening up.

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For retail investors, it is difficult to judge the intentions of the main force.

Because the buying and selling of retail investors are just a drop in the ocean.You simply cannot discern whether the main force is buying or selling from other transactions.

Because the main force is much smarter than retail investors, it can disguise itself, and confuse retail investors by breaking and combining orders, as well as repeatedly placing orders.

So when it comes to the issue of a "blowout" in the market, it is not a matter of looking at a single transaction to identify the problem.

Instead, it requires a comprehensive judgment based on the overall technical structure, the position of the stock price, and the overall turnover rate.

The mystery behind the blowout and the high turnover is actually written in the coherent trend of the market, not on a specific day's time node.

For a simple technical analysis and classification of the blowout, and to summarize several key points that need attention.

First, let's talk about the points of focus.

1. Overall turnover rate.

A blowout and turnover rate are two different things, but the turnover rate after a blowout is very important.For example, if yesterday's transactions amounted to 1 billion, and today when the stock price broke the board, the transactions were only 300 million, this is very normal.

Because the main force of capital found that many chips did not come out, it hopes to wash the plate, otherwise, the higher it goes, the greater the pressure to sell, and the higher the cost.

But if yesterday's transactions were 1 billion, and today when the stock price broke the board, the transactions have already reached 1.5 billion, this indicates that new chips have come out, forming a huge pressure to sell, and the main force is unwilling to take over the board at the limit.

Therefore, different turnover rates of the broken board correspond to different situations.

The broken board with reduced volume is all the main force seeking to follow the high position, allowing the follow-up plate to enter.

The broken board with increased volume may be the main force to sell, or it may be the main force to relay, and it is necessary to wash the chips clean.

2. The position of the stock price.

The position of the stock price is also an important reference.

The low position of the broken board must be that the main force of capital is not in place for the chips, or the chips themselves are very scattered.

The low position of the broken board, even if the main force deliberately does it, also indicates that the main force still wants to consolidate at a low position for a period of time, and is not in a hurry to go up.However, the situation is different when the stock price is at a high level and breaks the board.

Especially when the price has already doubled from the bottom, the main force can easily escape.

In this case, the probability of it continuously taking chips through breaking the board at a high level is extremely low, at most it is to wash the chips.

The main force can wash out the profits through breaking the board, while raising the cost of new funds entering the market.

3. The withdrawal rate of funds.

There is a detail, which is the withdrawal rate of funds, that is actually very important.

When the board breaks, the funds must be withdrawn.

What is left after the withdrawal is the following buying orders.

You can count the actual amount of money that is actually sealed after the withdrawal through details.

If the sealed amount is very small, then the main force actually can't go much, it's all self-directed and performed.

(Note: The translation may not be perfect as some of the terms are specific to the stock market and may not have a direct equivalent in English.)If after the order cancellation, the sealed order amount is not reduced, but a lot of transactions have been generated, it indicates that the main force is massively fleeing on the board.

This detail can only be analyzed in relatively accurate statistical software, but it is very important.

Because the rate of capital order cancellation can clearly sense the intention of the main force.

4. The number of times of re-sealing.

Some explosions are just a small gap.

The speed of re-sealing is very fast, and the number of times of re-sealing is very few.

Some explosions come back and forth, and the nature is different.

Usually, after the first limit-up, the main force will have an explosive behavior.

To put it bluntly, let some retail investors who are willing to enter again at the limit-up price come in, and they also reduce their positions at the limit-up price.

The reason is very simple, the main force also needs liquid capital, and it is not just about wanting chips.The main force always wishes that the cost of their chips is as low as possible, and they hope that the cost for retail investors is as high as possible.

Blowing up the board can effectively allow retail investors to enter the market and raise the average cost of chips for retail investors.

During the process of lifting the price, the main force eats a large amount of goods, and sells a part to retail investors on the board, which is a matter of course.

So, the fewer the number of times the board is blown up, the more dominant the main force is relatively, and the more times the board is blown up, the problem may become more serious.

Of course, it is also possible that the main force deliberately blows up the board many times to scare retail investors, which needs to be seen in combination with turnover rate, position, and other comprehensive factors.

Let's talk about the feedback of the main force's intention on the technical side.

1. Increase the holding cost of retail investors.

The first intention of the main force to blow up the board is to increase the holding cost of retail investors.

Many retail investors do not quite understand this, because they are standing in the perspective of retail investors.If you stand from the perspective of the main force, it is very easy to understand how the so-called cancellation of orders increases the cost of holding positions for retail investors.

From the results, after the cancellation of orders, retail investors will trade in large numbers near the upper limit price.

The best scenario for the main force to lift the stock price is when the funds of the retail investors buying and selling are just equal, so there is no cost.

Therefore, the main force takes a large number of chips before the limit price, and when it reaches the limit price, it distributes a large amount to the retail investors who follow the trend.

This is equivalent to exchanging hands, and the stock price goes up, but the cost can still be reduced.

Therefore, in the process of blowing up the board, for the main force, at least for the time being, it is a sure profit without loss.

2. Try to ensure safety by changing hands as much as possible.

The main force wants to blow up the board, in fact, it is for its own safety.

At least when the goods are unloaded on the board, it is the highest price of the day, and it is ensured to be profitable on the day.

If the main force blindly seals the order on the floor, once the pressure to sell is too great and it is smashed open, it will take a lot of goods on the board, and the risk is actually very great.The main force's goal is to ensure its own safety as much as possible.

This safety refers to the profit-making actions of the day and the security of the chips.

Especially in a relatively high position, holding cash in hand is obviously a safer level than holding shares in hand.

Therefore, the main force has a strong momentum to sell on the limit-up board, especially when there is a certain following plate.

Of course, the main force that blows up the board once often completes the task, ensuring its own safety. The situation of blowing up the board many times is more complicated, which may be a direct escape.

3. Test the peak height of turnover rate.

The main force also has the intention of testing the turnover rate when blowing up the board.

Because blowing up the board is the easiest way to deceive people to sell, the main force does not know how much actual circulation plate there is, and relies on blowing up the board to test.

After repeatedly blowing up the board and sealing the board, the funds that should be sold will also be sold in large quantities.

In the end, there is almost no money willing to sell, and the main force also seals the board.Only by knowing the peak turnover rate can the main force understand how much capital is needed to operate after raising the price.

Otherwise, a serious problem may arise: what if the stock price is raised halfway and then gets smashed?

For example, when the price is 10 yuan, it feels that there is only a 30% turnover rate. When it is raised to 15 yuan, the turnover rate suddenly increases to 50%.

The extra turnover rate corresponds to the chips, who will take over, and this problem becomes very troublesome.

There is no completely bullish or bearish view of the "smashing of the board" itself. It must be the main force that does it for some intention, which is a technical feedback.

We cannot simply define the good or bad of a stock and the probability of short-term rise and fall according to the two words "smashing of the board."

Otherwise, the standard for judging the trend of stocks is biased.