There are two ways out for retail investors, which one should they take?

2024-05-21

If you have carefully studied the market, you will find that retail investors in the stock market actually fall into two camps, corresponding to two paths.

The first camp is the value investors.

In the market, value investors are always right.

The verification of value lies in the future, so whether the stock price goes up or down, they are right.

When the stock price falls, it falls to reveal value. If you buy now, you wait for the value to be reflected in the future, and it will rise.

When the stock price rises, it is because of its value. If you buy, it will go up, giving you the best return.

The vast majority of super bull stocks that have increased by dozens of times are also in the hands of value investors.

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However, the fact that there are countless stocks that have failed halfway among the value investors is overlooked.

The foundation of value investors is to explore value. Whether there is value or not, whether the listed company will grow, is actually an unknown question, a pseudo proposition, and an unsolvable problem that needs to be verified over time.

The second camp is the technical analysts.

(Note: The second paragraph is incomplete, and the translation is provided up to the point where the text was cut off.)In the market, the technical school is always right.

Because all trends can ultimately be explained by technical analysis, whether they rise or fall.

So the technical school never admits defeat, but failures are common.

Because the verification period for the technical school is very short; if the price falls after buying, the technical school has failed.

Essentially, what the technical school earns is not a hundred percent certainty, but a probability.

Because any technical chart is probabilistic, with rises and falls being normal, there are always some that rise more and some that fall more.

Ultimately, the technical school uses the principles of trading, that is, the control of buying and selling points, to make money from probabilities.

The advantage of the technical school is low time cost and high efficiency in verification, which can be said to be quick trial and error, immediate verification.

In fact, there is a third school in the market, which is the news school, or the "leek" school, which has no way out.

Although it is very sad, this is the naked reality.If retail investors neither understand the value nor the technical aspects, and make investment decisions solely based on information, they are easily turned into "leeks" (a term used in Chinese to describe inexperienced investors who are often taken advantage of).

Although information has value, the sources of information may not be reliable, and there are many impurities mixed in.

Many retail investors have always been unable to find their own investment strategies and are immersed in various pieces of information.

Listening to recommendations from others is not a bad thing, but the outcome without the ability to discern is very bad.

The information-based approach does not constitute a trading model, and it is a group that cannot make money, belonging to the wanderers in the market.

We cannot base our investments on a completely uncertain system; this is not a way out, but poison.

Therefore, in the end, the basic way for retail investors to survive in the stock market is only value and technology.

So, for retail investors, which one is the broad road, and which one is the narrow path?

 

The stubbornness of the value school.Value investors like to delve into the depths, seeing the essence through the surface.

The essence of the stock market is actually very simple; it's the stocks of listed companies, a kind of certificate.

Value investors always firmly believe that gold will always shine, which is their stubbornness.

Value investors search for gold in the vast sands, making money by unearthing gold.

If you want to do value investing, there are several principles.

1. Possess the vision to unearth gold.

The essence of value investing is to find excellent listed companies.

Correspondingly, it requires the vision to discover value.

This value refers to the future of the listed company, which will become better and better.

Behind this vision, there is actually a need for a lot of cognition, as well as an in-depth understanding of the industry and a company.2. Firmly believe in the principle that gold shines.

Placing belief in the second position is because without belief, it is easy to waver.

In the process of realizing value, there will be many fluctuations, and many fluctuations will make investors doubt whether they have chosen the wrong path.

There are not many investors who can hold on for a long time and wait for the value to be reflected. The reason is that many people do not have the belief to hold on.

Only those investors who have enough belief in value investing will achieve the results of value investing.

3. The opportunity to buy gold at a low price.

A major misconception of value investing is buying at a high price.

Because the value itself, only when it is cheap, does it have value.

The same thing, if you buy at a low price, it has value. If it is expensive, especially if you buy at a particularly high price, the premium does not exist in value, but in risk.

Investing is the same principle; if you buy at too high a price, it is actually value investing.The following is the translation of the provided text into English:

With it comes the risk, not the value.

None of the three can be missing.

Without vision, one cannot choose good stocks; without conviction, one cannot hold onto good stocks; without the right price, one cannot make a lot of money.

The most common cases of failure for value investors are no more than these three.

Either they got off the train after holding for a while in the fluctuation, or the performance of the stocks they bought suddenly deteriorated, or the performance was fine, but they took over at a high position.

Good company, good timing, good price, value investing is not as simple as imagined.

 

The pride of the technical school.

The essence of the technical school is to explore the flow of funds.

The technical school is a trading model that follows the flow of funds to make a living.Due to the speculation in the stock market, funds need to flow in and out, which inevitably leaves traces in the trend.

In a one-sided bullish market, funds must choose to push up in order to facilitate the sale of stocks.

Then, the technical analysts can follow the main capital's movements and enjoy the profits with the main force.

However, technical analysis is far from as simple as it seems, because the main force's goal is to cut the leeks, not to let people make money with him.

Therefore, the main force will use various methods to shake off the technical analysts, to make false lines, and to deceive investors.

To be a qualified technical analyst, one must be able to discern the true direction of the funds.

Correspondingly, there are also many principles.

First, give up subjective emotions.

It is said that technical analysts should focus on technology, but the first requirement of technical analysts is to give up subjective mentality.

Technology is objective, and as long as you have subjective emotions towards the transaction, you cannot make accurate judgments.Subjective emotions in trading mainly stem from emotional fluctuations within the heart, and emotions are the primary targets for the market to harvest.

Secondly, adhere to the discipline of the market.

Adhering to the discipline of the market is the second main principle of the technical school.

Not being emotional does not necessarily mean being disciplined.

The essence of discipline is your standard for trial and error; discipline can change, but it must be executed.

You may feel that there is a problem with the principles, and you can make some changes to the standards of the principles, but the principles themselves must be followed.

Thirdly, study the patterns of capital.

The foundation of technology is the pattern of capital, which is the goal and result of studying technology.

The patterns of capital are actually similar because the way to operate stocks is more or less the same.

Therefore, the essence of technology is to study the patterns of capital through visible technical indicators such as K-lines, trading volume, moving averages, etc.Identify the key time points of the main force's position building, lifting, and exiting, and make money from them.

These three are the core principles, and there are actually many other principles.

The essence of technical analysis is to find the laws of capital through backtesting with big data.

When capital is operating, what situations are similar is the essence of technical analysis.

The biggest disadvantage of retail investors in technical analysis is that they do not have the computing power like machines, and the accumulation of experience requires a certain time period.

The verification period is short, but the cycle of accumulating experience and studying laws is long.

Technical analysis is not something that can be truly mastered in a day or two, and it requires a lot of time and energy investment to see results, which is also a long journey.

Investing in stocks is not an easy thing.

Both value and technical schools are not wrong, and both can make money.As for how to take sides and make money, it still requires diving in to study and verify thoroughly.

In the stock market, only those who go their own way can ultimately carve out their own path.

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