Why does the stock price fall as soon as you buy and rise as soon as you sell?

2024-05-09

Recently, the stock market speculation has entered a frenzied phase.

The frequency of "sky floor" and "earth ceiling" is increasing.

This also means that the incidents of retail investors being "harvested like leeks" are becoming more frequent.

The curse of retail investors in stock trading is that stocks fall as soon as they buy and rise as soon as they sell.

However, many people only know about this phenomenon, but do not understand the essence behind it.

Why does this phenomenon occur? Is it really that the main force is staring at the money in the retail investors' pockets, can the main force monitor the retail investors' accounts in the background?

In fact, it is not the case.

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Instead, the main force can analyze the behavior of retail investors through the market's plate surface.

Let's talk about the "sky floor" first.

The condition for the appearance of the "sky floor" is the mass following of retail investors.The vast majority of the ceiling and floor transactions, a large part of the transaction volume is above the ceiling.

In other words, during the process of rising, a large trading volume is released, and the main force is pulling up while retreating.

When the main force feels that the chips in its hand are almost distributed, and there are not many left, it starts to smash the plate.

In fact, it is not smashing the plate, but clearing the chips, preparing to run away.

If the limit-up plate is pulled up, and there is not enough follow-up plate to let the main force run away, as long as the selling pressure is not too great, the main force will continue to do the plate upwards.

Because the higher the price, the further away from the cost, the higher the safety factor of the main force.

When the main force can distribute more than 70% of the chips during the process of pulling up and retreating, the remaining 30% will be desperately smashed down, and it will no longer support the order to buy.

Because of the T+1 trading system, after buying, it can't leave on the same day.

Once this kind of one-way selling is formed, the ceiling and floor is very natural.

Let's talk about the floor and ceiling.

The vast majority of the ceiling and floor transactions, a significant portion of the trading volume occurs above the ceiling. In other words, during the process of rising, a substantial trading volume is released, with the main force pulling up while simultaneously retreating. When the main force feels that the chips in its possession are nearly distributed, with only a few remaining, it begins to liquidate its holdings.

In reality, it's not about liquidating the holdings but rather clearing the chips, preparing to make an exit. If the price limit-up is triggered, and there is insufficient follow-up buying to allow the main force to exit, as long as the selling pressure is not too great, the main force will continue to push the market upwards. The higher the price, the further it is from the cost, and the higher the safety factor for the main force.

When the main force is able to distribute more than 70% of the chips during the process of pulling up and retreating, it will desperately drive down the remaining 30%, and it will no longer support buying orders. This is due to the T+1 trading system, which means that after purchasing, one cannot sell on the same day.

Once this type of one-way selling is established, the occurrence of a ceiling and floor is very natural. Now, let's discuss the floor and ceiling.The condition for the appearance of a "ground-to-ceiling" board is that a large number of retail investors cut their losses at the bottom of the market.

If retail investors do not cut their losses and wait for the main force of capital to lift the stock price, then the main force will never try to lift the bottom.

The main force suppresses the stock price, and the goal is not necessarily to force retail investors to cut their losses, but it is very likely to be to sell goods.

However, on the way to selling goods, it is found that the buy orders are scarce, and on the contrary, retail investors are also cutting their losses.

In this case, if the main force of capital does not try to lift the bottom and chooses to sell the chips together, a large number of orders will lead to no funds daring to take over the market, and finally everyone will suffer losses.

As a result, the main force quickly withdraws the order, and then reverses and eats all the chips of retail investors, and then rises sharply.

If the retail investors sell a large number of chips at a low position, the pressure of selling when lifting up will be greatly reduced, and it is very easy for the main force to lift the limit.

If there are still a lot of retail chips that have not come out, then after lifting the bottom, it is still possible to close the limit.

In fact, the essence is how many chips are left for retail investors, and how much pressure is there when lifting up.

If all the retail investors leave in a neat row, the main force will lift the limit again, why not.When you buy, the price drops; when you sell, the price rises. In fact, this is the result of the game between the main force and the retail investors.

The retail investor group is isolated one by one, but their trading mentality is very similar.

That is to say, retail investors do not know what other retail investors are doing, but in fact, the buying and selling behavior of the retail investor group is mostly consistent.

In the face of sharp rises and falls, at least the trading mentality of retail investors is more than 70% similar.

That is to say, the proportion of long and short positions of retail investors is not fifty-fifty, but three to seven.

Then the main force only needs to choose to stand on the side of three and harvest the seven retail investors.

How retail investors stand on the team and try to avoid being cut by the leek has become the most core problem to be solved.

Facing the emotional killing of the main force, the countermeasures of retail investors are actually against human nature.

1. Do not make trades on the spot due to panic.The essence of chasing highs is panic, the fear of missing out on buying.

The essence of selling off is still panic, the fear of a continuous decline and being deeply trapped.

If trading is carried out with emotions, it is doomed to become a "leek".

Because the trading of the "leek" group is all emotional, both chasing and selling off are common traits.

It's not that you can't chase or sell off, but from the perspective of trading itself, you can't buy and sell in panic just because you're afraid of missing out or being trapped.

If you can't change this habit, you will never break the curse of buying and then falling, and selling and then rising.

Trading does not necessarily have to go against human nature, the best trading is to maintain rationality.

2. Strictly set the conditions for buying and selling.

Buying and selling should not be on a whim, conditions can be set.

Under what circumstances should you buy, under what circumstances should you sell, and use trading principles to restrain yourself.Principles are cold and unyielding, they do not change due to sudden rises and falls.

Setting buy and sell conditions has another advantage.

For instance, setting a sell condition can prevent significant losses because there will be a stop-loss point.

If you sell at the profit-taking position, there won't be too much reluctance due to missing out, after all, you have made a profit.

When you have a relatively complete trading system, you won't panic in the face of fluctuations.

3. Minimize the game of ultra-short cycles.

Short lines, the kind within 1-3 trading days, are not playable for retail investors, and they are easily played to death.

The reason is very simple, retail investors do not have a base position and cannot withstand the game of ultra-short lines.

The main capital has half of the chips and half of the funds, and can also control the trend of the stock price.

Ordinary retail investors are completely passive, how can they compete with the main force?If retail investors unanimously believe that the price will continue to rise, either the main force will quickly lift the price with reduced volume, or they will distribute all the shares to retail investors.

The main force has already thought of everything that retail investors can think of, and they have multiple contingency plans such as A, B, C, and D.

Retail investors often make decisions in one go within the market, while the main force can trade back and forth in the fluctuations.

Short-term speculation is not something retail investors should engage in, because from the perspective of trading rules, it is unfavorable to retail investors.

The T+1 trading system leads to the possibility that retail investors may suffer small profits and large losses when chasing the rise, instead of making large profits and small losses.

4. Try to buy stocks near the closing time.

To avoid the unfavorable situation brought by the T+1 trading system, retail investors also have other ways when establishing positions.

Among them, buying stocks at the end of the day is a very good way to avoid risks.

Because buying at the end of the day, the fluctuation of the day is almost zero.

That is to say, it will not cause losses due to the fluctuation of the stock price on the same day, resulting in the risk of rising and falling.This method can maximize the avoidance of the unfavorable situation brought by the T+1 trading system.

Of course, this also means losing the possibility of rising on the trading day.

In fact, large funds are all bottoming out in this way, because only with positions in hand can better decisions be made afterwards.

But there is one thing to remember, the bottom position is not for you to do T+0 trading every day, but to avoid risks.

Many retail investors like to keep rolling T, which is only something that the main funds can do, and retail investors often lose more than they gain.

If retail investors want to stand out, they must remember to be different from other retail investors.

A bunch of retail investors buying the same stock, the end is doomed to be most people losing money, this is inevitable.

Otherwise, the main funds have been subsidizing retail investors, which is unrealistic.

In this market that eats people without spitting out bones, retail investors can only find a way to survive that fits their own trading style.

First survive, then have the opportunity to make money, never lose a large amount of investment principal in the short term.After all, the bull market may be late, but it will not be absent; there will always be opportunities to make money after waiting for a few years.

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