The A-share market, characterized by short bull markets and long bear markets, has already tormented retail investors to the point of no return.

The facts have also proven that simply introducing some policies cannot end a bear market.

Despite the numerous policies introduced in the second half of this year, they still failed to save the pharmaceutical sector from its dire situation, and the decline continued.

When will the bear market come to an end?

From a broader perspective, there is only one fundamental reason for the end of a bear market: when everyone collectively lies flat.

When the entire market reaches a point where no one is willing to sell, isn't that the bottom?

What about when the market drops to 3,400, 3,300, 3,200, 3,100, 3,000, 2,900, or 2,800?

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While the market continues to decline, although panic selling may occur, the willingness to sell among those who have "lied flat" will inevitably weaken, which is the so-called "low volume sees low price."

Because when the market falls to a certain level, it naturally evolves into a situation where there are more funds willing to buy and fewer funds willing to sell.

This position is not related to policies, fundamentals, but rather to the intentions of the funds.We all say that this market is mowing the leeks.

When the leeks in the market collectively lie flat, with no leek being active, the market naturally hits the bottom.

In other words, the end of a bear market is the grave of retail investors.

When the capital no matter how to toss, and the leeks collectively lie flat, the market has fallen to the bottom.

Therefore, the bottom of the market often kills the technical school.

Because the technical school has the strongest survival ability and is also the last batch to be mowed by the leeks.

You will find that at the end of the bear market, all techniques are out of order, because the capital can only mow the technical school.

Only when the entire retail group collectively keeps silent, is it the real end of the bear market.

If you must list the end of the bear market, you can look at the following several important indicators.Translate the following article into English:

1. Trading Volume

All bear market bottoms are characterized by a reduction in trading volume, with almost no exceptions.

A bottom marked by an increase in volume is definitely not the major bottom of a bear market, but only a temporary bottom.

This is because the true bottom of a bear market must be one of despair, not one where a large amount of capital comes to pick up bargains.

Looking at the bottom in 2008 and 2018, the trading volume was less than one-tenth of the peak.

In 2007, the peak trading volume of the Shanghai market was 270 billion, and in 2008, at the lowest point, it was only over 20 billion.

The peak in 2015 saw the Shanghai market's trading volume reach as high as 1.3 trillion, and in 2018, at the bottom, it was only over 80 billion.

In 2021, the peak trading volume of the Shanghai index was over 800 billion, and in recent years, the lowest volume of the Shanghai index has also been around 250 billion.

Although the current market situation is not quite the same as in the past, with the introduction of a large number of quantitative funds into the market.

However, the minimum volume of the Shanghai market must also break through 200 billion, which is a sign of the bear market bottoming out.So, simply looking at the bear market's major bottom from the perspective of trading volume, there is still a large amount of capital active in the market at this stage, and it is still a long way from the bottom.

2. Capital side.

The capital side here, corresponding to the trading volume, is not the same.

The capital at the end of the bear market is actually relatively abundant, but only in a macro sense.

For the micro stock market, capital needs many reasons to enter the market.

However, there are some funds that enter the market with clear signs, such as pension funds, national funds, insurance funds, and some corporate buybacks and increases in holdings, etc.

The entry of market capital follows the effect of making money.

But policy-guided capital follows the bottom of the market to pick up the bottom.

In the case of very active market transactions, tens of billions of funds seem insignificant.

But when the market transactions are very cold, it takes a period of time for tens of billions of funds to complete the layout.The capital market at the bottom of a bear market is characterized by individual investors lying flat, institutions on the fence, and only policy funds bottom-fishing, which are the traits of the end of a bear market.

3. Market hotspots.

At the end of a bear market, there are actually no market hotspots.

Because at the end of a bear market, there is no influx of funds in groups.

At the end of a bear market, due to low trading volume, the cycle of capital speculation will become increasingly short.

Wherever they can deceive some funds to take over the positions, they will go there, and if there are no hotspots to speculate on, they will lie flat.

It is very clear that the market is still speculating on this topic, that topic, which is not a sign of the end of a bear market.

When funds have gone through all major sectors and trapped various chips, the bear market will slowly come to an end, and the so-called market will come.

The emergence of market hotspots, especially the emergence of sustained hotspots, is often a characteristic of the early stage of a bull market.

When you feel that you are chasing the hotspots and getting trapped every time, you are not far from the tail end of the bear market.At the end of a bear market, there must be no market hotspots. Almost all rising sectors should experience a round of catch-up declines.

4. Profit-making effect.

At the end of a bear market, there is no profit-making effect.

But this does not mean that a lot of money will be lost at the end of a bear market.

The index at the end of a bear market is mostly interspersed with red and green, and when it falls too much, some funds will bottom-fish, leading to a small rise.

However, the trading volume is very small, and the rise is not significant, so there is no profit-making effect.

At the end of a bear market, there is not much capital willing to chase the limit up, because there is no following plate.

The bottom-fishing at the end of the bear is mainly long-term capital, and this part of the capital will not follow the limit up.

At the end of the bear, it is some blue-chip stocks, showing a small bearish and bullish trend, and the profit-making effect is relatively poor.

When the market appears to have consecutive boards, it is likely to have moved from the end of the bear to the beginning of the bull.In reality, no one can make money at the end of a bear market; this is a stage of rational capital, looking for opportunities in the market while bearing paper losses.

The main reason for the phenomenon of short bull markets and long bear markets is actually policy.

Foreign markets do not worry about systemic financial risks, so they adopt a method of quickly releasing bearish news in the short term, directly returning to the original state in the throes of pain. However, our market is concerned about risks and does not want to cause a situation of sharp declines, so it adopts a slow decline.

If it were really like 2008, it would have directly fallen from 6124 to 1664, completing the historical bottom.

But if it fell from 5178, first to 2850, and then to 2638, it would then fall again to 2440, going through a very long bear market to digest.

Most of the time, retail investors are not in a bull market, but are trading in the rebound phase of a bear market.

It should be understood that in a bear market rebound, there is usually no incremental capital, and the market valuation is not at an absolute low.

In such a market of mutual harvesting, it is very unfavorable for retail investors.

A real bull market requires 6-7 years to come around once, and it will only come after the bear market has been completely squeezed out.When you notice that during a downtrend, the surrounding retail investors are still very active, the bear market is far from over.

Only when everyone is completely flat and the market turnover shrinks to an unbearable level, is it the time when the bear market ends.

Misjudging the bull and bear market can easily lead to major directional decision-making errors, which is a light burden that ordinary retail investors cannot bear.