The index is hesitantly hovering around the 3000-point mark, unable to rise or fall.

It seems to be oscillating within a certain range with a narrow amplitude.

It appears that both the bulls and bears are contending at this point.

On the surface, it looks unremarkable, but in reality, there are undercurrents.

This time, the 3000-point mark is not just a so-called defense battle, but also a huge directional game.

Below 3000 points, the market's minimum trading volume is over 700 billion, and the maximum trading volume is over a trillion, which is unusual.

In 2018, the bottom of the market, although it was five years ago, what was the daily transaction amount at that time?

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The Shanghai Composite Index was 85.7 billion, and the Shenzhen Component Index was 123.4 billion, just over 200 billion.

When the market is at a position with less divergence, the trading volume must be extremely shrunk, because there is no capital willing to sell.

The activity of the market seems to be a good thing, but the actual situation is very bad, because the profit effect is not good.The stock market's frequent plunges of over 4000 points have long tormented individual investors beyond recognition, but why hasn't the volume decreased?

It's because the funds that want to go long are still buying non-stop, while the bears continue to wreak havoc with the chips in their hands.

Do you remember that phrase, "You can't buy it all, really can't buy it all," as if they want to sell the listed companies to me.

Although it's a joke, it also reflects the divergence in this market, just how big it is.

We need to think about one thing, who is selling?

The market gives people the feeling that there are no bears below 3000 points, all are bulls, but the key to the problem is that as soon as it just rises above 3000 points, these bulls feel that the market has resistance and want to reduce positions, and they become bears again.

This fully illustrates that the market originally does not have an absolute long or short, only a naked interest relationship.

Looking back at this 3000 point game.

What are the positions of the bulls and bears?First, let's talk about the bullish side.

1. Market valuation is relatively low.

The overall market valuation is relatively low, whether it's the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Composite Index, or the ChiNext board.

Of course, the valuation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is still slightly inflated, and there are also slightly inflated valuations in some other indexes, but they are basically within a reasonable range and have not entered the bubble area.

Looking at the history of A-shares, this level of valuation is not only not the bottom, but it is also in the bottom area.

So, buying stocks in this area, at least in the medium and long term, is a relatively low point.

2. Liquidity is very loose.

The market is really not short of money, and banks are also constantly lending money, trying to increase liquidity.

This is also the main reason why the market here can have 80 billion, or even trillion transactions, liquidity is very loose.

Liquidity means that there is no lack of funds to start the market.Do not worry about the market tightening liquidity leading to a lack of buyers; the key issue is whether this part of the money is willing to enter the stock market.

3. The macroeconomy is in good condition.

The overall macroeconomy is actually on a healthy path.

At least judging from the GDP data, there is no obvious underperformance.

The credibility of this data is not in question; there is no need to doubt the development of the economy.

However, the macroeconomy's reflection on the life cycle and feelings of ordinary people may have many discrepancies in between.

After all, the booming economic cycle at the top is all concentrated in the field of technology, and has not poured a large amount of water into the consumer field.

4. There are breakthroughs in technology.

We need to see that our technology, under blockade, has actually achieved certain breakthroughs.

Huawei is just a microcosm.Technological breakthroughs are a gradual process, and it is unrealistic to expect that technology will make rapid progress in just 2-3 years.

It is certain that technological breakthroughs will eventually break through the blockades, and this must be firmly believed.

This is similar to how, in very difficult situations, technologies such as nuclear weapons, hydrogen bombs, nuclear submarines, and satellites have all been conquered one by one.

5. Market systems are improving.

The market system must be perfected gradually, and it cannot be done all at once; this is inevitable.

However, judging from the release of the new regulations on shareholding reduction, the market system is moving in a positive direction.

Indeed, it must be admitted that there will be loopholes, but efforts are being made to plug them.

Some issues cannot be expected to be resolved immediately, but overall, as long as the situation remains good, it will gradually improve.

Of course, for issues such as fraudulent listings, it is hoped that there will be stricter measures.

Now, let's talk about the short sellers.1. There are too many trapped positions above.

The purpose of stock trading is to make money, not to make money for others, to act as the People's Liberation Army. In recent years, the market tops have accumulated a large number of trapped positions above 3400. This year, a large number of trapped positions have also accumulated between 3200 and 3300. Therefore, funds will start to reduce positions in advance above 3000, and the more the market rises, the higher the reduction ratio, forming a significant selling pressure. It will take a relatively long period to digest this part of the selling pressure, and it requires time.

2. The real estate market situation is not as expected.

In fact, the real estate market is closely related to the stock market, affecting the whole body with a single hair. The real estate market covers a very large and extensive industrial chain, not just a real estate sector. It involves banks, building materials, steel, cement, infrastructure, home appliances, consumption, logistics, and so on, leading to a decline in expectations for these sectors.In the market, a very significant portion of the weight has chosen to lie flat on the spot after being affected.

3. The performance of listed companies is lacking.

Although the valuation is relatively low, the growth momentum of the performance of listed companies has obviously slowed down.

Without the support of performance, many medium and long-term funds have hesitated to step forward.

Performance is the essence of the market, and performance growth is the market's expectation. This concern and hidden danger still needs to be resolved by the listed companies.

4. There is no clear trend main line.

Funds all want to make money in the market, but the problem is that there is no clear direction.

Every bull market has a main line, but the current market's hot spots are very messy, and there is nothing to speculate on.

Technology seems to be the main line, but which direction technology will be implemented is the main line, and there is no conclusion.

In addition, the high valuation of technology has led to a lack of enthusiasm for large-scale speculation by funds, and they are all fighting guerrilla warfare everywhere.5. The market bloodletting has not ceased.

The last point is the issue of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), which has not been properly resolved.

The issuance of IPOs, as a market bloodletting, is a normal phenomenon.

However, the pace of IPO issuance, the quality of listed companies, and financial issues, whether to be strictly scrutinized.

The inflated issuance prices, the interests in between, whether to improve the audit from a systemic perspective.

The registration system should not become a one-time listing blood-sucking system followed by cashing out, all visible problems must be resolved.

Gambling implies there is always a distinction between winners and losers, but the outcome is not a simple matter.

In simple terms, the market can go down, 3000, 2900, 2800, or even 2700.

But this does not mean that the bears have won a complete victory.Because the market always has a day when it turns from bearish to bullish, it will return to 3000, 3100, 3200, and even above 3500.

It's just a matter of the market's trajectory, whether it goes up first and then down, or down first and then up.

We are all used to the A-share market fluctuating around 3000 points, so the outcome of the game is not that important.

Below 3000 points, it is an opportunity for medium and long-term investment, but for those who lack patience, it is a risk.

Above 3000 points, it may be what all investors are looking forward to, but if the fundamental issues are not resolved, it will once again become a place of burial.

In fact, everything is a cycle, a cycle that repeats itself.

We may all come to a common conclusion that there is no long-term bull market in A-shares, and there are more structural opportunities under the cycle, which depends on how to grasp them.