We all know that when main funds make investments, they are not invincible in every battle, and they often lose money as well.

Even the most powerful social security fund was not immune in its 2022 investments, and ultimately achieved a negative return.

But most of the time, smart money has a relatively high success rate.

Many people will attribute the cause of the problem to insider trading, but it is not necessarily the case.

If these funds had 100% insider information, they would not lose money.

The final choice and direction of the market are things that no funds can accurately predict.

Some people may say that the market manipulators in the stock market always make money because they can control the stock price.

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But you are too simple-minded, because some manipulators, if they operate improperly and do not find a fund to take over, will still lose money.

Only when all the chips are cleared and turned into cash can the profit or loss of the investment be determined.

Even if the manipulator controls the market, it is just a higher success rate, and it is impossible to be invincible in every battle, which is the same principle.This is similar to the principle of insider trading, which both have preconditions.

However, it cannot be denied that investment institutions with capital and information advantages are more likely to make money.

Including Warren Buffett, his capital is sufficiently large, and his information sources are also sufficiently accurate.

But in his investment career, he has also made many unprofitable deals.

It's just that his investment win rate is relatively high, and the overall profit is considerable, which has obscured the fact of some investment failures.

So, focus on the win rate, not on whether a single investment is successful or not.

Do not always use the survivor bias to treat investment, more often, turn stock trading into a matter of probability.

The main force is decisive because they deeply understand this truth.

When they lose money, they quickly admit their mistakes and control the loss to the smallest range.

This translates to:

This is akin to the rationale behind insider trading, both of which are contingent upon certain conditions.

It is undeniable, however, that investment institutions with advantages in capital and information are more likely to profit.

Take Warren Buffett, for instance; his funds are substantial, and his sources of information are highly reliable.

Yet, throughout his investment career, he has also engaged in numerous unprofitable ventures.

Nevertheless, his relatively high success rate in investments and substantial overall earnings have overshadowed the reality of some of his failed investments.

Thus, it is crucial to concentrate on the success rate rather than the success of a single investment.

Avoid consistently applying the survivor bias to investments; more often than not, consider stock trading as a matter of probability.

The decisiveness of the main force stems from their profound understanding of this principle.

When they incur losses, they swiftly acknowledge their mistakes and confine the damage to the smallest possible extent.In fact, for the main capital, their trading methods are also mainly two kinds.

The first type is the value investment approach.

There is a part of the capital that believes that gold will always shine.

Their goal is to wait, in long-term investment, until the day when the value is discovered.

The value investment approach is always right, and there is no wrong time.

But value investment can also fail, because waiting can lead to changes.

If during the waiting period, a listed company's operations deteriorate, the value will change.

It's like the top student in your eyes, who may fall from grace due to addiction to online games.

No one can guarantee that the top student will always be the top student.

No one can guarantee that the smart children you think will definitely succeed.The concept of value investing, in the end, is also a kind of game, but the game is about the changes that time ultimately brings to a company, whether it is positive or negative.

The second type is the capital game approach.

The vast majority of funds in the market are still based on the capital game approach.

Because the capital game makes money faster and is simpler.

Especially in the A-share market, because the proportion of retail investors is relatively high, the advantage of capital game is huge.

In overseas markets, some funds do not engage in the game, because everyone is a mature investment institution, and the trading models used are very similar, so the risk of the game is very high.

The bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish, which is not applicable to A-shares.

Because the wind and waves of A-shares are ultimately borne by retail investors.

The idea of capital game, of course, is not 100% winning, because the market's weather vane will also change.

For example, when the main force is still luring retail investors to take over the plate, the market environment suddenly deteriorates, and the stock index plummets.At this point, the enthusiasm of retail investors to buy will significantly decrease, making it very difficult for capital to earn money from retail investors through the game of chance.

When the retail investors who follow the trend flee in panic, the main capital is naturally busy in vain, and even provides a wedding dress for the retail investors.

Therefore, the way of playing by using the information difference and the capital difference can only ensure making money with a high probability.

The two trading methods of the main capital, the result is to make money by using probability, and to maximize their own advantages.

How can retail investors invest in the winning rate?

Retail investors do not have the investment research ability of the main capital, and the ability to find value investment is also relatively weak.

Retail investors are also at a disadvantage in terms of information and capital, and are also at a disadvantage in the game.

But this does not mean that retail investors cannot improve the winning rate, retail investors also have their own investment methods, which can make the winning rate higher.

1. Reduce the frequency of decision-making.If retail investors can reduce the frequency of decision-making, they can effectively increase the accuracy of their decisions.

This is because decision-making requires mental effort.

Retail investors are not like institutions, which have a complete trading system or model to assist in decision-making.

Retail investors make decisions entirely based on their own experience.

In this situation, the more trading decisions made, the more likely they are to become emotional, and the higher the probability of making mistakes.

Therefore, retail investors should not make trading decisions lightly or casually, which can effectively increase their chances of winning.

2. Be good at waiting for opportunities.

Waiting is also something that retail investors can do.

For retail investors, unlike institutions, there is no pressure to invest, and they can choose to take a break.

If retail investors can take a break during a bear market, their chances of winning will significantly increase.In the stock market, opportunities are waited out, and good prices are also waited out.

Learning to wait, as opposed to learning to chase, significantly increases the chances of success.

Further simplifying, investing at relatively lower positions has a much higher success rate than chasing rises at high positions.

However, waiting is tedious, and how many people can be patient enough?

3. Learn to track funds.

There is another way for retail investors to improve their chances of success, which is to track funds.

So-called tracking funds refers to the long-term monitoring of a stock's trend.

If you track over the long term, you will find that the main force's operation of stocks is actually regular.

When you understand the intentions of the main force's funds, you will understand what the main force is doing, and the chances of making correct judgments will be much higher.

However, learning to track funds is not easy, and it requires focus.The retail investors who constantly switch stocks find it difficult to truly track their capital, and thus cannot improve their winning rate.

4. Reasonably adjust positions.

The last strategy is not one that increases the winning rate, but rather a way to increase the efficiency of making money.

Retail investors can control their positions to ensure that when they make money, the return rate is high, and when they lose money, the losses are less.

You just need to grasp one point: reduce positions at high levels and increase positions at low levels.

Reasonable adjustment of positions can effectively reduce risks and increase the chances of making money.

However, controlling positions also requires dealing with human greed and fear, which many retail investors cannot do.

In summary, retail investors are not without methods to increase their winning rate, but it is easier said than done.

Behind this, it is mainly due to human nature and a lack of cognition.

Only by continuously learning in the market can retail investors increase their investment winning rate through the accumulation of experience.